Insight into DC Winter Weather Forecasts
Currently: General Commentary
Probabilities Saturday 12/29
Snow mixed with Rain;: 5%
Accumulating Snow: 95 % (broken out below) Most probable value - Dulles: 1.0 inch/Actual 0.0
1 inch 80%
2 inch 12%
4 inch 3%
8 inch 0%
12 inch 0%
16 inch 0%
Latest NCEP Prediction of Surface Low positions based on ensembling techniques
This updating chart gives you a good example of ensemble forecasts. The idea is to run a model over and over again, slightly changing the initial parameters or physical assumptions. Each change then predicts a different location for the low. A cluster of like symbols gives you the idea of the various positions each ensemble "member" produced. And, in this case the solid black line is the ultimate track the meteorologist in the loop decided was the best solution...but theoretically, each one of those symbols are connected to create many different potential tracks
A bit geeky below, but data from the US model giving predicted snow amounts by hour - The left data come from the regional model, so it only goes out 84 hours, hour by hour...the right side is from the larger model out to 180 hours in 3 hour intervals. The TotSn column tells you how much snow is predicted for each storm. All of the data below are forecasts for Dulles Airport.
Archieve of previous
"for the record"
Snowfall amount chart has been moved below
Note: This page refreshes automatically every 10 mins.
Storm 2 page
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"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking"
Charts/Data are below....scroll down!!!